In 2024, Venezuela faced a difficult situation.
The country’s yearly inflation rate reached a staggering 85%, a significant increase from the already concerning rises before September of that year.
According to the Venezuelan Finance Observatory, the basis of the problem was a troublesome exchange rate misalignment, along with a continuing swirl of economic uncertainty.
Interestingly, the inflation rate surpassed the official and black market exchange rates, which increased by 45% and 66%, respectively.
This is significant because when the exchange rate fails to keep up with rising prices, the real exchange rate falls behind.
This means that prices in dollars will increase, reducing the country’s capacity to compete on a global scale.
Central Bank of Venezuela’s uphill battle
Faced with a skyrocketing demand for foreign currency, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) found itself shedding about $632 million in the last quarter of 2024.
This was all in a bid to keep the bolívar from falling further against the US dollar, under the radar of a quiet policy of slight devaluations aimed at halting the currency’s downward spiral.
By this point, the gap between the black market dollar rate and the official rate hit its widest since 2022, standing at a whopping 27%.
This growing divide just screams a lack of trust in the official currency and highlights how deep the economic troubles run.
Monthly inflationary trends and consumer prices
Things became much more acute in December 2024, when the monthly inflation rate rose to 14.8%, up from 12.5% in November.
This jump was mostly caused by a 14% increase in the value of the dollar.
Every component of the National Consumer Price Index experienced large rises.
Food prices increased by 16.4%, clothing and shoes by 15.5%, home goods by 17.2%, communication costs by 20%, and the hospitality industry, comprising restaurants and hotels, by an astounding 26.5%.
Inflation’s uneven impact across regions
The inflation issue did not affect all parts of the country in the same way. Some locations were harder hit than others.
Consider Anzoátegui (an interior state), which had the highest annual inflation rate (96%), followed by Nueva Esparta (86%), Zulia (84%), and the Metropolitan Area of Caracas (the capital) (80%).
These variances reflect Venezuela’s uneven economic suffering, with some regions facing a disproportionate burden, making life even more difficult for their citizens.
Looking ahead: a bleak forecast
As the currency continues to fall and inflation pressures persist, the outlook for 2025 is not very optimistic.
Experts believe inflation might accelerate again, potentially reaching three-digit levels, reminiscent of the previous hyperinflation crises.
With the currency rate’s volatility, difficult fiscal targets, and continued economic problems, the prospect for Venezuela’s recovery appears bleak.
However, this issue is not new.
It’s part of a bigger pattern of economic insecurity that has plagued Venezuela for a time.
The disparity between currency values and consumer prices demonstrates an unsustainable economic model with major ramifications for everyday people.
As essentials grow more expensive, the standard of living plummets, fuelling worries of social upheaval and economic catastrophe.
Venezuela is at a crossroads, with inflation, currency devaluation, and economic mismanagement threatening to tear apart the fabric of society.
As policymakers navigate these challenging times, it is evident that significant economic reforms and revitalization initiatives are urgently needed.
Without urgent action, the cycle of hyperinflation may not only persist but worsen, leaving millions in a difficult condition, unaware of what the future holds.
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