UBS strategists have raised their long-term forecasts for spot gold prices, signaling confidence that the metal’s rally has further room to run despite recent volatility.
The bank now expects gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by late 2026, citing a mix of US economic pressures, monetary policy shifts, and sustained demand from central banks.
Updated forecasts through 2026
The Swiss bank left its end-2025 target unchanged at $3,500 per ounce, compared with a current spot rate of roughly $3,340.
For next year, however, it adjusted its near-term projections upward.
UBS now sees gold at $3,600 by the end of March 2026, $3,700 by the end of June, and maintaining $3,700 through September.
The revisions mark an increase from previous benchmarks of $3,500 per ounce for each quarter.
UBS’s strategists argued that the metal retains strong momentum, with enough tailwinds to sustain record-high prices seen in recent months.
The upgrade comes after a turbulent period for the commodity.
Gold surged in the first half of 2025 as investors piled into safe-haven assets, but that rally cooled when market fears over Trump-era tariff announcements subsided.
In August, speculation over potential US tariffs on gold bars briefly unsettled traders before the White House dismissed the reports as “misinformation.”
At the same time, investors have been watching closely for signs of progress in the Russia-Ukraine war, which could temper safe-haven demand if tensions ease.
Drivers behind the bullish outlook
UBS highlighted several U.S.-centric factors that could continue to support the gold market.
In a note to clients, strategists pointed to sticky US inflation, dampened economic growth, the Federal Reserve’s expected policy easing, and further weakness in the dollar as critical drivers of demand.
“In particular, due to the metal’s non-interest-bearing nature, gold prices should rise as the first two factors push down real yields in the US,” UBS wrote, noting that lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The strategists also flagged concerns around America’s fiscal health.
With the federal deficit widening and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term set to expire in May 2026, questions over central bank independence could become more prominent.
Such developments may fuel investor interest in gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
Central banks remain key buyers
Beyond macroeconomic conditions, UBS underscored the role of official sector purchases in supporting gold demand.
The bank’s analysts noted that global central banks have been net buyers at near-record levels in recent years, a trend that should remain robust even if it moderates slightly from 2024’s pace.
China, India, and Turkey have been among the most active buyers, with acquisitions aimed at diversifying reserves and hedging against inflation.
This trend has helped gold overtake the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar.
UBS had already raised its forecasts earlier in April, citing strong central bank accumulation.
The latest upgrade builds on that view, reinforcing expectations that institutional demand will remain a durable pillar of support for the market.
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