France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a crucial confidence motion in the National Assembly on September 8, a test that could decide the survival of his government.
The vote, which he himself called a “clarification,” is centred on his plan to narrow France’s fiscal deficit, now the widest in the euro area.
The outcome carries weight not only for his minority administration, but also for President Emmanuel Macron’s fragile standing in parliament, and for market perceptions of France’s financial stability at a time when European peers such as Italy are showing signs of fiscal progress.
France’s 2026 budget plan under scrutiny
Bayrou is seeking parliamentary support for his proposal to reduce the budget deficit to 4.6% of GDP by 2026, down from 5.4% projected this year.
The plan outlines €44 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes.
Among the more controversial measures is a proposal to cut two public holidays, aimed at reducing costs in Europe’s second-largest economy.
The government has warned of the scale of the problem, noting that debt is increasing by €5,000 every second, with servicing costs expected to reach €75 billion next year.
These figures place France’s fiscal imbalance firmly back in the spotlight, particularly after Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, fell last year over an unpopular budget.
Political arithmetic in the National Assembly
The confidence vote will be preceded by Bayrou’s policy speech at 3 pm Paris time, followed by interventions from the Assembly’s political groups.
The result is expected between 8 pm and 9 pm.
Out of 574 seats currently occupied, the government can count on just 210 votes, meaning Bayrou must rely on abstentions from opposition members to survive.
This arithmetic makes his position precarious.
Opposition blocs, including the far-right National Rally, France Unbowed, and the Socialist Party, have pledged to vote against him, reducing his room for manoeuvre.
If Bayrou loses, Macron could appoint a new prime minister or dissolve the Assembly and call fresh elections.
Market and investor concerns
The confidence vote has already unsettled markets. Since Macron announced snap elections in June 2024, the CAC 40 index has fallen 4.1%.
In contrast, the Stoxx Europe 600 has gained 4.9%, and Germany’s DAX Index has risen 24%.
Investors fear that a collapse of Bayrou’s government could intensify doubts about whether France can rein in its deficit.
Bond markets reflect this unease.
The spread between France’s 10-year government bonds and Germany’s bund widened after Bayrou announced the confidence motion.
It stood at 70 basis points before the announcement and rose to 78, though it calmed late last week as reports suggested Macron wanted to avoid new elections.
What comes next
If Bayrou fails to secure a majority, Macron will face the challenge of quickly finding a replacement who can unite the centrist bloc and secure backing from moderate Socialists.
The president is the only authority able to appoint a new prime minister, though the constitution imposes no deadline.
For comparison, it took Macron two months to name Barnier after the 2024 snap election, and over a week to install Bayrou after Barnier’s ouster.
Timing is critical, with unions planning a strike on September 18 against the budget plan.
Any delay in naming a premier could leave France without a functioning government in the middle of rising opposition to fiscal reforms.
Bayrou’s gamble rests on abstentions that now appear unlikely, given the unity of opposition groups.
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