Russian wheat exports are estimated to reach 5.1 million metric tons in October, surpassing last month’s 4.8 mmt and the five-year average of 4.5 mmt, according to SovEcon.
This marks the first time since November 2024 that Russian wheat exports may exceed average levels.
Global wheat demand recovered, leading to higher exporter margins and supporting the overall increase, SovEcon said.
In recent months, major global importers of Russian wheat have significantly increased their purchasing activity, a trend that has continued robustly into October.
This surge in demand underscores Russia’s growing influence as a key supplier in the international wheat market.
Increased buying
A notable example of this increased buying includes Algeria’s OAIC (Office Algérien Interprofessionnel des Céréales), which last week finalised a substantial purchase of approximately 600,000 metric tons of wheat.
This acquisition by Algeria highlights its strategic decision to secure vital food supplies from Russian sources.
Earlier in October, Saudi Arabia’s GFSA (General Food Security Authority) also made a significant move, acquiring 455,000 metric tons of wheat.
This purchase further illustrates the expanding reach of Russian wheat exports and the confidence major importing nations place in its supply.
The continued active buying by these and other nations suggests a sustained pattern of reliance on Russian grain to meet their domestic consumption needs.
In October, GFSA procured 500 tmt of wheat from its affiliated companies.
SovEcon said:
Traders expect a significant portion of these supplies to come from Black Sea origins.
Since early autumn, major importers have increased their purchases of Russian wheat.
In September, shipments to Egypt reached 0.8 mmt, marking the highest level since February 2025. Similarly, exports to Turkey for the same period totaled 0.7 mmt, which is the highest level recorded since November 2023.
Simultaneously, wheat exports from Russia’s competitors are not increasing.
“We expect Ukraine to ship around 1.5 mmt of wheat in October, down from 2.1 mmt in September. EU October exports are seen around 1.7 mmt vs 2.1 mmt a month earlier, the agricultural consultancy said.
Exporter margins showed improvement throughout the last month, recovering from negative figures in early October to reach as high as $4 per metric ton by month’s end.
Harsh weather impedes operations
Weather conditions in the Black Sea are currently a significant impediment to Russian export operations.
As is typical for this time of year, the region is experiencing an increase in storm frequency and severity.
These adverse weather patterns, including strong winds and rough seas, create hazardous conditions for shipping, leading to delays and disruptions in the transportation of goods, particularly for critical exports from Russian ports.
This heightened meteorological activity directly impacts the efficiency and reliability of maritime trade routes, forcing vessels to either reroute, seek shelter, or postpone their voyages, thereby limiting the overall volume and regularity of Russian shipments.
Russian wheat exports were estimated at 43.4 mmt by SovEcon in September, while the USDA projected a higher figure of 45.0 mmt.
“The recent pickup in exports indicates stronger demand from major importers,” Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon said in the latest update.
However, it remains unclear whether this demand will prove sustainable or if buyers will slow down again in anticipation of lower prices.
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