Australia has postponed the release of its quarterly resources and energy outlook for the first time, citing extreme volatility driven by the US-Israel war against Iran, which has rendered forecasts rapidly outdated, a government spokesperson told Reuters on Friday.
The delay comes at a time when the government is facing mounting pressure over energy policy, including calls for a windfall tax on liquefied natural gas export profits, while some mining operators continue to grapple with diesel supply challenges.
Forecast pushed to June as uncertainty clouds outlook
The Resources and Energy Quarterly, published by the Office of the Chief Economist, was originally scheduled for release in late March but will now be issued at the end of June.
The report typically provides three two-year outlooks covering Australia’s major mining and energy exports, along with a broader five-year macroeconomic forecast.
According to a spokesperson from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, “The five-year forecasts on Australian resource and energy production and exports have therefore been delayed until around the end of June 2026 to allow a clearer picture to emerge on the geopolitical, economic and trade backdrop.”
The REQ is a key document that outlines historical, current, and projected export volumes and values for major commodities, while also assessing global demand trends and emerging market drivers.
Its projections are also used as inputs for Australia’s federal budget, which is due in May.
LNG earnings surge amid oil price volatility
In its previous edition released in mid-December, the REQ projected that export earnings from mining and energy would decline by 5% year-on-year to A$369 billion ($260.48 billion) in the 2025–26 financial year, before falling further to A$354 billion the following year.
However, recent developments have significantly altered the outlook, particularly for LNG exports.
Australia is expected to see a sharp increase in LNG revenues, largely driven by a surge in global oil prices.
More than 75% of LNG export contracts are linked to oil prices, typically with a lag of three to six months, while spot cargoes are currently being sold at record levels.
At the same time, rising diesel prices have increased production costs for some miners, adding pressure to operational margins.
Windfall tax debate gains traction
The spike in LNG revenues has reignited debate over taxation, with some groups advocating for a 25% windfall tax on so-called super profits.
Reports from ABC last month indicated that Australia’s Treasury is examining such a proposal, although the government has not officially confirmed any plans.
Energy security concerns intensify
Global oil markets have experienced sharp swings in recent weeks.
Prices surged by a record 50% in March before dropping by nearly $20 per barrel on Wednesday, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire.
Prices have since partially rebounded amid continued uncertainty surrounding the fragile truce, supply concerns from Saudi Arabia, and disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The ongoing conflict has also exposed vulnerabilities in Australia’s energy security framework.
The government has faced increasing criticism over its reliance on imported refined fuels, particularly as supply disruptions and price spikes have intensified since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February.
With volatility persisting across global energy markets, policymakers appear to be opting for caution, delaying critical forecasts until a clearer geopolitical and economic picture emerges.
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