Copper price has rallied back within the bullish channel that shaped its movements for months prior to the US-Iran war. The gains recorded late last week signals financial markets’ overconfidence over the ceasefire agreement. However, the “unreasonable” US demands that hindered successful negotiations over the weekend are likely to burst that bubble.
Copper price returns to bullish channel amid failed peace talks
Copper price has rallied back within the months-long bullish channel for the first time since it plunged below it three weeks ago. Notably, that technical indicator has shaped its movements since the end of July 2025 when concerns over Trump’s tariffs weighed on the red metal. Since then, its bullish long-term outlook has bolstered and sustained it back above the crucial support level of $5.50 per pound.
However, the US-Iran war and subsequent uncertainties have reversed some of those gains. In late March, Dr Copper declined to its lowest level since early December 2025. As a barometer of the global economic health, the decline reflected heightened inflation concerns.
As the headlines continue to influence the financial markets, copper price is rallying on the back of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, though fragile. Nonetheless, investors remain cautious of the durability of the ceasefire. Besides, the stock market, oil prices, US dollar, and overall market sentiment are set to influence copper price into the coming week.
Data released on Friday showed that the US consumer prices rose in March in reaction to the energy shock. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate rose to 3.3% in March after the CPI surged a seasonally adjusted 0.9%. That annual rate is the highest since April 2024 and marks an increase of 2.4% compared to February’s level.
However, the core inflation, which excludes energy and food, increased at a lesser rate of 0.2% MoM. The figure was 0.1% below experts’ forecast, and signaled that the underlying inflation was contained.
As the market digests the inflation data, headlines on the conflict in the Middle East will continue to influence copper price in the near term. Late last week, financial markets appeared overconfident amid “contained” inflation and the ceasefire. In the new week, the fresh US demands may burst that bubble.
Comex copper price technical analysis
CU price chart | Source: TradingView
Copper price is back within the bullish channel that has shaped its movements since July 2025. On Friday, it hit an intraday high of $5.93 before easing slightly to trade at $5.88. Subsequently, the red metal recorded its third consecutive week of gains.
A look at its daily chart shows it trading above the 25 and 50-day EMAs. However, it continues to experience some selling pressure amid the conflict-driven uncertainties. The bearish death-cross pattern is still in place after the medium-term 50-day MA crossed the short-term 25-day EMA to the upside three weeks ago.
In the immediate term, the range between the support level of $5.74 and the resistance at $5.90 is worth watching. Investors will be particularly keen on the stability of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Heightened concerns on the global energy shock may pull copper price back below the bullish channel. A move below its current trading range may activate the lower support level of $5.67.
For as long as the red metal holds steady above $5.64, this cautious bullish thesis will still hold. On the upside, further gains will have the bulls eyeing a 6-week high at $6.00.That would be its highest level since the US-Iran war at the start of March.
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