Meta Platforms and Microsoft will give Wall Street its most important AI test of the quarter on Wednesday, April 29, when both companies report after the bell.
Meta’s Q1 2026 earnings call is set for 2:30 p.m. PT, while Microsoft has said it will publish fiscal Q3 2026 results after the close of the same day.
The numbers matter because the market is no longer rewarding AI spending on faith alone.
Investors are seeking proof that hyperscaler capex is translating into real revenue, stronger margins and durable monetization.
That debate has only intensified as Bridgewater estimates roughly $650 billion of Big Tech AI investment in 2026, up from about $410 billion in 2025.
Meta has guided 2026 capital expenditure to $115 billion to $135 billion.
Meta: Cleaner growth story
For Meta, the setup is still constructive as Wall Street expects another solid quarter from advertising, helped by AI-driven tools.
The analysts see Q1 2026 revenue at about $55.5 billion, with earnings of $6.65 a share, and the broader consensus remains Strong Buy with an average target of $855.60.
Guggenheim’s Michael Morris kept a Buy rating and an $850 target, saying ad growth remains strong and that AI tools such as Andromeda are helping engagement and performance.
UBS also raised its target to $908 from $872 and kept a Buy rating, pointing to continued GenAI-driven ad revenue growth and possible upside from AI chatbot monetization.
Meta is seen as the cleaner of the two stories, as its core business is still ads, and ads are still the cash engine funding the AI buildout.
The problem is that the bill keeps getting bigger.
Meta’s 2026 capex plan jumped to $115 billion to $135 billion, a sharp step-up that reflects data-center and AI infrastructure spending.
The company’s challenge on Wednesday is simple: show that revenue growth can absorb that investment without a sharp margin reset.
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Microsoft: Azure and Copilot must prove the payback
Microsoft faces a slightly different test.
The analysts expect earnings of about $4.05 a share on revenue of roughly $81.4 billion.
The Street remains broadly bullish, with a Strong Buy consensus and an average target of $573.99, but the debate has shifted from whether Microsoft can win AI demand to how much AI spending the stock can absorb before monetization catches up.
Azure is still the key number as investors will be watching closely for evidence that cloud growth is holding up even as Microsoft pours money into infrastructure.
Copilot is the other pressure point, as the upcoming report is being framed as a key catalyst because investors want to see whether Microsoft’s AI and cloud investments are producing tangible returns.
Both Azure growth and Copilot updates will likely draw investor scrutiny.
Some analysts remain constructive, but recent note traffic shows a more cautious tone on near-term upside as spending remains heavy.
Piper Sandler, for example, trimmed its target to $500 from $600 while keeping a Buy-equivalent stance.
What the market really wants to know
Meta and Microsoft are still winning the AI narrative, but Wednesday will decide whether the market is ready to keep paying for the buildout.
Meta has the more obvious near-term revenue story because advertising is already monetizing AI tools.
Microsoft has the broader platform story, but it also has the harder proof point.
Azure and Copilot must show that they can turn AI demand into faster earnings growth, not just bigger capital budgets.
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