Romania’s 2025 presidential election is not a normal election. This election is a rerun following the annulment of the December 2024 election due to Russian interference.
And the story keeps getting more intense. Just a week ago, the far-right nationalist candidate won the first round, the prime minister resigned and Romania’s national currency dropped to its lowest level in history.
By the end of this week, Romanians must choose between two men with completely different answers to the same question: what should Romania stand for?
This runoff isn’t about personalities. It’s about Europe, NATO, Ukraine, and the markets. It’s about whether Romania remains a stable ally or steps into the unknown.
Why this election is different
Romania’s 2025 presidential election is unlike any before. For the first time in the post-communist era, neither candidate comes from the country’s traditional ruling parties.
The frontrunner, George Simion, leads the ultranationalist AUR party.
He won 41% in the first round on May 4, drawing strong support from rural voters and the Romanian diaspora.
His opponent, Nicușor Dan, is an independent pro-European reformer and the mayor of Bucharest. He barely made it into the runoff with 21%.
Source: Politico
This wasn’t just an election. It triggered a full political breakdown.
Romania’s ruling coalition, made up of the Social Democrats, Liberals, and the ethnic Hungarian UDMR, collapsed after their candidate Crin Antonescu failed to reach the second round. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned the same evening.
With no party in control and a president who can shape foreign policy, defence, and veto EU decisions, the stakes are far higher than usual.
Who are the candidates?
George Simion is 38. He started as an activist, once banned from entering Ukraine and Moldova, but now calls himself the Romanian version of Donald Trump.
He wears MAGA hats, campaigns on Romanian sovereignty, and says he wants “Melonisation”, a reference to Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who moved from populist firebrand to prime minister.
Simion opposes sending weapons to Ukraine. He says Romania should focus on its own needs. In the recent televised debate, he argued Romania should be “neutral” and that the EU should depend on NATO for protection.
He also said Romania should be compensated for its help to Ukraine so far, including the donation of a Patriot missile system.
Nicușor Dan, 55, is a mathematician with a doctorate from the Sorbonne.
He made a name for himself fighting corruption in real estate before becoming mayor of Bucharest. Dan supports Ukraine and the EU’s plan to increase joint military spending. He says Europe needs to prepare in case the US withdraws its support.
He has no major party behind him but has attracted support from the Liberals and UDMR. The Social Democrats have stayed neutral.
What’s really at stake?
Romania is a key NATO member on the Black Sea, sharing a border with Ukraine. It has played a critical role in exporting Ukrainian grain and training Ukrainian pilots.
Simion’s election could reverse that. He has said he would veto any future EU plans to send arms to Ukraine.
Political analysts believe this would isolate Romania, weaken support for Ukraine, and possibly shift the balance inside the EU.
Romania already has the EU’s highest budget deficit, at around 9% of GDP. Investors are nervous.
After Simion’s first-round win, the leu dropped to historic lows. The central bank had to intervene with €1 billion to stabilize the currency.
Source: Erste Group
Dan says Simion’s policies are dangerous for the economy. He points to Simion’s promises to nationalize key industries, cut taxes, and build subsidized housing without clear funding plans.
If elected, Dan says he will reduce spending in state enterprises, crack down on tax evasion, and work to unlock frozen EU funds.
Where do voters stand now?
Recent polls show the race is tied. A survey by AtlasIntel has both candidates at 48.2%. Another, by CURS, gives Simion a slight edge at 52%.
But there’s a wildcard. Nearly one million Romanians abroad voted in the first round.
Over 60% supported Simion. Dan’s support among the diaspora is strongest in the US and Canada, but those regions account for fewer votes.
Simion’s appeal is built on frustration with the old political class. His supporters say Romania has been ignored by Brussels and needs to put its own interests first. He connects with voters in villages, small towns, and religious communities.
Dan’s base is in the cities: educated, middle-class, and pro-European.
His path to victory depends on winning over millions of voters who backed other candidates in the first round and convincing them to turn out.
Could Romania shift Europe’s balance?
This election isn’t happening in a vacuum. If Simion wins, he is likely to join forces with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico to slow or block EU decisions on Ukraine, defense, and rule of law.
Kremlin-linked ideologue Alexandr Dugin even called Simion’s rise a “chance for Russia”.
Simion’s ties to Călin Georgescu, the pro-Russia figure disqualified in 2024, have only added to fears in Brussels and Washington. According to reports, Simion wants to appoint Călin as Prime Minister.
At the same time, Simion is trying to soften his image. He’s promised to work with NATO and reassured investors that he supports market reforms. Whether that’s genuine or just a campaign tactic remains unclear.
Dan, meanwhile, presents himself as the steady choice. He says Romania must prove it’s a reliable partner to the EU and NATO. He argues that the country’s security, economy, and global credibility depend on it.
On May 18, the country will pick between two clear and opposite futures. One looks toward Brussels, the other away from it.
Both men promise change. But only one has a vision for Romania as part of the European mainstream. The other is asking voters to take a leap into the unknown.
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