In the span of a few days, the relations between the US and Europe on the war in Ukraine have fractured.
Following a phone call with Vladimir Putin, Trump dropped the US demand for an immediate Russian ceasefire, pushed for bilateral talks between Ukraine and Russia, and dismissed new sanctions altogether.
European leaders are now left confused, especially Ukraine’s President. It is now clear that the US is no longer leading the diplomatic front and the EU is trying to pick up the pieces.
But there’s also another story here. What changed? On the surface, Trump claims to be pursuing peace.
But the details tell a different story. Maybe this was never about peace.
What did Trump actually say?
After his third phone call with Putin since returning to office, Trump said that Russia had agreed to negotiate.
He told European leaders the US would not mediate and would not impose further penalties on Moscow.
According to several participants on the call, there was confusion and silence when Trump presented Putin’s willingness to negotiate as if it were a breakthrough.
Zelensky reminded the group that talks were already underway in Istanbul and that Putin had offered nothing new. Trump did not respond.
At the same time, Trump has reportedly suggested Ukraine should accept Russian control over Crimea and parts of the Donbas, according to earlier US press reports.
He also stated publicly that Ukraine would not be joining NATO, which is a key Russian demand.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defended Trump’s actions, saying there have been no real concessions.
But in practice, Trump’s words echo Russian talking points and downplay Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The EU moves ahead without the US
It now appears that Trump’s stance has permanently changed. He is now backing away from demanding an immediate Russian ceasefire and has rejected European calls for new sanctions on Moscow.
The European Union responded quickly. On Tuesday, it approved its 17th sanctions package against Russia.
It targets over 180 ships in Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, which Moscow uses to bypass global restrictions on oil exports.
European leaders are already working on an 18th round, with discussions around gas pipelines, banks, and a lower oil price cap.
The UK introduced similar measures, targeting military suppliers and financial backers of the war.
British Foreign Minister David Lammy called for a full and unconditional ceasefire.
But the US is now the missing piece. The Biden administration had helped orchestrate earlier sanctions packages.
Trump now appears to have abandoned that role.
European leaders such as German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul made clear they still expect the US to pressure Russia.
So far, that expectation is unmet. And it leaves Europe alone in trying to choke off the Kremlin’s war financing.
What is Trump’s real agenda?
Some theories suggest that this is not about Ukraine. The real discussions between Trump and Putin may have been about something else entirely: the Arctic.
Russia sees the Arctic as a vital strategic region. It has built airfields, military bases, and infrastructure to control new sea routes opened by melting ice.
China has also invested heavily, hoping to cut transit time to Europe in half by using the Northern Sea Route.
Russia now relies heavily on China for trade, financing, and technology, which is the result of Western sanctions.
Trump sees this as an opportunity. If the US can pull Russia away from China, it could regain influence in the region.
That’s the trade Trump appears to be offering: territory in Ukraine in exchange for future business deals and closer US-Russia ties in the Arctic.
During their call, Trump praised Russia’s economic potential and spoke of wanting to resume trade.
Kremlin aides said he even referenced the World War II alliance between the US and Russia.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
Zelensky and his government understand the stakes. Without US backing, they face the risk of isolation.
Ukraine’s military budget now consumes around 50% of total government spending.
Defence spending now amounts to 34% of the country’s GDP. It depends on Western aid not only for weapons but for basic functioning.
Zelensky called Russia’s delay tactics an attempt to buy time. Putin has insisted that negotiations must include “draft memorandums,” with no fixed timeline for a ceasefire.
This gives Russia space to make gains on the battlefield before talks resume.
Meanwhile, Trump’s open admiration for Putin and public criticism of Zelensky suggest a shift in loyalty.
If Trump believes Zelensky is an obstacle to a deal, it is likely that Washington’s support will erode further.
What began as a US-led defence of Ukrainian sovereignty has turned into a transactional negotiation where Ukraine could be asked to surrender land to satisfy geopolitical calculations.
So is Europe now in charge?
The answer is yes, but only partly. The EU is doing more than ever before.
It has frozen over €200 billion in Russian central bank assets, blocked trade in steel, luxury goods, and energy, and banned more than 2,400 individuals from traveling or accessing funds.
Plans to eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027 are moving ahead.
Proposals to shut down future investment in Nord Stream pipelines are designed to prevent any return to Russian energy once the war ends.
But Europe remains divided. Countries like Poland and Estonia want to keep pressure high, while others further west may see less urgency.
Defence spending remains uneven, and Europe still lacks a unified military strategy.
If Trump formally reduces US military support or questions NATO’s Article 5 obligations, these tensions will rise.
The result could be a fragmented response at a time when Russia continues to advance.
The hard truth
Before becoming President, Trump used to claim that he could “end the war in 24 hours”. But this was never about diplomacy, but about positioning.
The goal was to hold leverage over both Russia and Ukraine, using the promise of recognition or withdrawal of support to extract concessions.
What appears on the surface as a peace proposal is more accurately a power move. It’s a way to shape the outcome of the war by controlling who gets backing, who gets blamed, and who gets business.
That’s why the upcoming summits matter. The G7 in Canada from June 15 to 17 and the NATO summit in The Hague from June 24 to 26, will set the tone for the rest of the war in Ukraine.
Europe is preparing for a future where it may stand alone. Trump is preparing for a future where power is negotiated, not defended.
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