So said Will Ferrell’s character, Ron Burgundy, in the film Anchorman.
It’s a quote that has seemed apposite on many occasions since Donald Trump’s inauguration as US President back in January.
From tariffs and trade wars to NATO disengagement and a refusal to aid Ukraine in expelling its Russian invaders, President Trump has piled in where his predecessors feared to go.
Yet he certainly stuck a cherry on the top when he took the world by surprise last weekend by authorising US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
That surprise played out across financial markets in a predictable fashion, at least initially.
US stock index futures gapped lower on Sunday night, while WTI and Brent crude hit their highest levels in five months.
Even the US dollar finally found a bid amidst a torrid six months, which saw the Dollar Index drop to its lowest level in over three years.
But how quickly those initial moves unwound. Just a few days later, crude was back at levels last seen ahead of Israel’s 13th June attack on Iran.
The NASDAQ 100 had soared past its all-time high from February this year, while the dollar rally was stopped in its tracks in a reversal triggered by a couple of dovish remarks from FOMC members Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman.
The overall takeaway was that the US bombing sorties had made the world a safer place for everyone.
The massive ordnance dropped on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities had ensured the latter’s destruction.
As Mr Trump claimed on Monday, the bombs had caused ‘total obliteration’ of the nuclear sites, with the result that Iran’s nuclear programme would be ‘gone for years.’
Stock indices soared, oil prices slumped, precious metals slid, and the dollar slunk off, once again to hide away in the bottom right-hand corner of the chart.
But then came a leaked US intelligence report suggesting that the US airstrikes didn’t ‘obliterate’ Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Instead, this early assessment suggested that the damage inflicted may only set Iran’s nuclear ambitions back by a few months.
If this report turns out to be genuine and accurate, it should be a serious concern.
It opens up a myriad of possibilities when it comes to how to proceed next.
It raises the very troubling prospect that Mr Trump played his hand and got, sorry, trumped.
But did this report worry investors? Not a bit of it. Risk assets shrugged off the intelligence assessment and got on with what they do best: going up.
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was chasing the NASDAQ and appeared to be on its way to a fresh record high itself.
Bond markets were calm with the yield on the key 10-year Treasury Note back at lows last seen in May.
Long positions in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were being cut back, and all seemed good with the world.
So, the Iranian problem has been parked, for now.
Certainly, their retaliation against Israel suggested that they have been incapacitated militarily, while both sides held back from attacking oil infrastructure, so taking the risk premia out of the crude price.
That being the case, perhaps investors will now focus on the one thing that could have a deep and lasting effect on the global economy: Trump’s tariffs.
Tariff-related news continues to trickle in, with US ports reportedly seeing a surge in Chinese freighter traffic ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline with China.
This is a sign that companies are preparing for further trade disruptions.
The rest of the world has until July 9 to reach agreements with the Trump administration before tariffs on US imports jump to “reciprocal” levels.
But no one seems bothered. Instead, “Trump Always Chickens Out” has joined “Buy the Dip” as the key investment mantras of our modern age.
(David Morrison is a Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. Views are his own.)
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