From airfares to groceries: Summer price shock pushes UK’s July inflation to 3.8%

A nasty summer surprise has dealt a significant blow to the UK economy, as official data revealed on Wednesday.

UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated in July, stoking fresh fears about the cost of living and all but extinguishing hopes for another interest rate cut this year from the Bank of England.

The annual inflation rate hit a hotter-than-expected 3.8%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), surpassing the 3.7% that economists polled by Reuters had anticipated.

The reading marks a grim acceleration from the 3.6% recorded in June and pushes the consumer price index to its highest annual rate since the beginning of last year.

From airfares to groceries: the drivers of the price surge

The drivers of this inflationary surge were felt in the wallets of everyday Britons. Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, pinpointed the primary culprit. 

“The main driver was a hefty increase in air fares, the largest July rise since collection of air fares changed from quarterly to monthly in 2001. This increase was likely due to the timing of this year’s school holidays,” he commented.

But the pain didn’t stop at the departure gate. 

“The price of petrol and diesel also increased this month, compared with a drop this time last year. Food price inflation continues to climb, with items such as coffee, fresh orange juice, meat and chocolate seeing the biggest rises,” he added.

The core inflation reading, which strips out these volatile items, also rose to 3.8%, signaling that price pressures are becoming more deeply embedded.

The data prompted a swift response from the government, with UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledging that there was more work to be done. 

“We have taken the decisions needed to stabilise the public finances, and we’re a long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous government, but there’s more to do,” she said responding to the morning’s numbers.

The Bank of England’s tightrope walk

This latest report has thrown a major wrench into the Bank of England’s delicate balancing act.

The central bank recently voted by a razor-thin 5-4 margin to cut interest rates to 4%, and this new data makes any further easing a far more difficult proposition.

The most worrying signal for policymakers is the relentless rise in services inflation, which climbed to 5% in July. This figure is seen as a key indicator of persistent domestic price pressures, driven by rising wages.

The market reaction was immediate, with analysts declaring the possibility of another rate cut this year all but dead. 

 James Sproule, chief UK economist at Handelsbanken, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe:

I’m annoyed about the services inflation, it’s looking sticky, and given the importance of services to the UK economy I look at that and think, if the MPC [the central bank’s monetary policy committee] is looking at that as well — and I’m sure that they are — the chance of a rate cut in November are vanishingly small.

The narrowing road to 2%

Despite the grim July reading, the Bank of England is still forecasting that inflation could peak at 4% in September before beginning a slow retreat through 2026.

Experts at Deutsche Bank agree that Britain is “a sliver away” from that 4% peak, but see a long and difficult road ahead.

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