The US economy is going through a tough phase, and some details aren’t talked about enough.
One year after Donald Trump returned to office on a promise to lower prices and restore economic confidence, voters are starting to worry about their decision.
Between what the numbers show and how people feel every day, good news is rarely found nowadays.
On top of that, the longest shutdown in US history has left a missing section in the country’s economic dashboard.
Prices for basics have climbed faster than expected. And the very coalition that powered Trump’s 2024 victory is now bearing much of the strain.
Trump says America is lucky. But most Americans disagree.
What happened to the economic promise?
Trump won in 2024 because voters wanted the economy fixed. Surveys after the election showed that the economy, inflation, and cost of living ranked far above any other issue.
Source: Gallup
Many voters, including a more diverse group than in Trump’s previous wins, believed he would bring down prices and apply pressure on trading partners.
Post-election research by Navigator found Trump voters citing inflation and immigration as their top concerns.
The Republican message was clear. Prices would fall and economic confidence would return.
A year into the second term, inflation remains stuck.
The latest Consumer Price Index before the shutdown showed a 3% annual rise in September, which is the same number recorded when Trump took office in January.
Employment growth has slowed sharply. Monthly job gains have dropped to 22,000, and major employers have plans for layoffs before the end of the year.
Trump argues that the country avoided a catastrophe under Kamala Harris.
But voters measure their experience in grocery aisles, not in applause lines.
The price problem that will not go away
Affordability has become the defining economic problem for households.
Orange juice prices are up almost 30% from a year earlier, according to NBC’s grocery tracker. Beef is up more than 13%.
High frequency pricing data from the pricing lab shows how tariffs have lifted costs.
By October, imported goods were about 6% above where they would have been without the new duties.
Domestic goods linked to those imports were up more than 3%. Certain categories show extreme increases.
Imported carpets and flooring are almost 50% above their pre-tariff trend.
Fish, dairy, and household appliances have moved up, too.
Source: Pricing Lab
These increases did not appear all at once. Companies brought in extra shipments in the first quarter to get ahead of tariff deadlines.
The higher costs reached consumers later in the year. The White House also granted large numbers of exemptions.
By the summer, more than one trillion dollars worth of imports were not subject to the duties because businesses lobbied for relief.
That structure helped delay the impact but did not eliminate it. Voters noticed once the cost of food and essentials started rising again.
In recent off-year elections, about two-thirds of voters who helped Democrats score wins said Trump had not lived up to his promise to improve the economy.
The historic data gap shaping the outlook
The US government shutdown that lasted 43 days created an unprecedented break in America’s economic data.
More than 30 reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau were skipped.
The key series now contains blank spaces.
October unemployment numbers cannot be reconstructed because the household survey cannot be recreated after the fact.
The October inflation report is missing because price collectors were not allowed to work in the field. Some of the lost data has no modern precedent.
The effects are immediate. The Federal Reserve has warned that it is “driving in the fog” as it debates interest rates.
Policymakers avoid big moves when they cannot see the road ahead. Businesses also pause hiring and investment because they do not know if demand is rising or falling.
The shutdown produced a real economic hit, too.
Estimates suggest an $11 billion loss in output and a drop of 1.5 percentage points in fourth quarter growth.
The United States is dealing with a statistical breakdown at the same time as it tries to assess price pressure.
That combination leaves households feeling the worst of both worlds. Prices are stubborn, and the outlook is unclear.
The tariff retreat reveals something deeper
Last week, Trump rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including beef, bananas, coffee, and oranges.
These are some of the most politically sensitive items on store shelves.
The administration says the move is part of a long-running framework.
The argument is difficult to sustain. Some of the newly exempt goods are produced in the United States.
The justification now mentions domestic demand and production capacity rather than the old rule about non-produced goods.
The political reality is clearer. Prices were rising in the most visible categories for Trump’s own voters.
This is not the only retreat. Earlier in the year, the White House eased tariffs on several European and Latin American countries and cut some of the duties on Swiss goods, which had faced some of the highest rates.
The pattern usually goes as follows. Trump poses a threat of higher tariffs, markets drop, and then a reversal is announced.
The Supreme Court is now weighing whether Trump bypassed Congress when he imposed certain tariffs under emergency powers.
The decision could completely affect his authority. It could also force refunds of duties, which would leave a mark on the federal accounts.
What Americans actually feel right now
The mood in the country does not match the official message.
Consumer sentiment fell to a reading around 50 in November which is close to a series low.
The last time the index was this weak was during the inflation spike of 2022.
Households now worry about job security and spending power.
Republican support for Trump’s management of the government has dropped from more than 80% in March to under 70% in November in AP NORC polls. Independent support has fallen even faster.
Source: Associated Press
The interesting part is the split between the economy on paper and the economy people feel.
GDP is still growing, though at a slower pace. The stock market has support from heavy investment in artificial intelligence and data centers.
But those gains do not reach most households.
The sectors that feel more real to people, like food production, small business, manufacturing, and retail, look weaker.
Manufacturing employment fell by more than 40,000 between February and August. Small firms face higher import costs.
These sectors include a large part of Trump’s 2024 coalition, especially working-class voters and younger men of color who spend more of their income on food and basic goods.
The United States is in a rare situation.
A soft spot in the real economy lined up with a historic data blackout and a policy reversal on the very tool Trump used to sell himself as the candidate who would make life cheaper.
The country is told it is lucky. Many voters are asking what exactly they are lucky about.
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